The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation

被引：212

作者：

Ban, Nikolina ^{[1
]}

Caillaud, Cecile ^{[2
]}

Coppola, Erika ^{[3
]}

Pichelli, Emanuela ^{[3
]}

Sobolowski, Stefan ^{[4
]}

Adinolfi, Marianna ^{[5
]}

Ahrens, Bodo ^{[6
]}

Alias, Antoinette ^{[2
]}

Anders, Ivonne ^{[7
]}

Bastin, Sophie ^{[8
]}

Belusic, Danijel ^{[9
]}

Berthou, Segolene ^{[10
]}

Brisson, Erwan ^{[2
]}

Cardoso, Rita M. ^{[11
]}

Chan, Steven C. ^{[12
]}

Christensen, Ole Bossing ^{[13
]}

Fernandez, Jesus ^{[14
]}

Fita, Lluis ^{[15
]}

Frisius, Thomas ^{[16
]}

Gasparac, Goran ^{[17
]}

Giorgi, Filippo ^{[3
]}

Goergen, Klaus ^{[18
,19
]}

Haugen, Jan Erik ^{[20
]}

Hodnebrog, Oivind ^{[21
]}

Kartsios, Stergios ^{[22
]}

Katragkou, Eleni ^{[22
]}

Kendon, Elizabeth J. ^{[10
]}

Keuler, Klaus ^{[23
]}

Lavin-Gullon, Alvaro ^{[24
]}

Lenderink, Geert ^{[25
]}

Leutwyler, David ^{[26
]}

Lorenz, Torge ^{[4
]}

Maraun, Douglas ^{[27
]}

Mercogliano, Paola ^{[5
]}

Milovac, Josipa ^{[24
]}

Panitz, Hans-Juergen ^{[28
]}

Raffa, Mario ^{[5
]}

Remedio, Armelle Reca ^{[16
]}

Schar, Christoph ^{[29
]}

Soares, Pedro M. M. ^{[11
]}

Srnec, Lidija ^{[30
]}

Steensen, Birthe Marie ^{[21
]}

Stocchi, Paolo ^{[31
]}

Toelle, Merja H. ^{[32
,33
]}

Truhetz, Heimo ^{[27
]}

Vergara-Temprado, Jesus ^{[29
]}

de Vries, Hylke ^{[25
]}

Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten ^{[34
]}

Wulfmeyer, Volker ^{[34
]}

Zander, Mar Janne ^{[35
,36
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Innsbruck, Dept Atmospher & Cryosphere Sci, Austria Innrain 52f, F-6020 Innsbruck, France

[2] Univ Toulouse, CNRS, Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France

[3] Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP, Trieste, Italy

[4] NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway

[5] Fdn Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Reg Model & Geohydrol Impacts REMHI, Caserta, Italy

[6] Goethe Univ Frankfurt aM, Inst Atmospher & Environm Sci, Frankfurt, Germany

[7] German Climate Comp Ctr DKRZ, Hamburg, Germany

[8] Sorbonne Univ, UVSQ Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Atmosphere Milieux Observat Spatiales, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace IPSL, Guyancourt, France

[9] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden

[10] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[11] Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Inst Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal

[12] Newcastle Univ, Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[13] Danish Meteorol Inst DMI, Copenhagen, Denmark

[14] Univ Cantabria, Dept Appl Math & Comp Sci, Meteorol Grp, Santander, Spain

[15] Ctr Invest Mar & La Atmosfera CIMA, CNRS UMI IFAECI, CONICET, UBA, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[16] Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS, Hamburg, Germany

[17] Croatia Control Ltd, Zagreb, Croatia

[18] Res Ctr Julich, Inst Bio & Geosci IBG 3 Agrosphere, Julich, Germany

[19] Ctr High Performance Sci Comp Terr Syst, Geoverbund ABC J, Julich, Germany

[20] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway

[21] Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res Oslo CICERO, Oslo, Norway

[22] Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Sch Geol, Dept Meteorol & Climatol, Thessaloniki, Greece

[23] Brandenburg Univ Technol Cottbus Senftenberg, Chair Atmospher Proc, Cottbus, Germany

[24] Univ Cantabria, Inst Phys Cantabria, Meteorol Grp, CSIC, Santander, Spain

[25] Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

[26] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[27] Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Wegener Ctr Climate & Global Change WEGC, Graz, Austria

[28] Karlsruhe Inst Technol KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK TRO, Karlsruhe, Germany

[29] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[30] Croatian Meteorol & Hydrol Serv DHMZ, Climatol Dept, Zagreb, Croatia

[31] Natl Res Council ISAC CNR, Inst Atmospher Sci & Climate, Bologna, Italy

[32] Univ Kasse, Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Kassel, Germany

[33] Univ Kasse, CESR Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kassel, Germany

[34] Univ Hohenheim, Inst Phys & Meteorol, Stuttgart, Germany

[35] Deltares, Inland Water Syst, Delft, Netherlands

[36] Wageningen Univ & Res, Dept Environm Sci, Wageningen, Netherlands

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2021年 / 57卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

Regional climate models; Multi-model ensemble simulations; Kilometer-scale resolution; Precipitation; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; CLOUD MICROPHYSICS SCHEME; OFFICE UNIFIED MODEL; CONVECTION; SYSTEM; LAND; PARAMETERIZATION; PERFORMANCE; CORDEX; DRY;

D O I：

10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of similar to 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models ( RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (similar to 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from similar to -40% at 12 km to similar to -3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.

引用

页码：275 / 302

页数：28

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