Time series of counts;
Exponential family;
Autoregressive models;
Parameter change test;
CUSUM test;
Comparison of tests;
PARAMETER CHANGE TEST;
TIME-SERIES;
AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES;
POISSON;
INTERVENTIONS;
D O I:
10.1007/s10463-018-0676-7
中图分类号:
O21 [概率论与数理统计];
C8 [统计学];
学科分类号:
020208 ;
070103 ;
0714 ;
摘要:
This study considers the problem of testing a parameter change in general nonlinear integer-valued time series models where the conditional distribution of current observations is assumed to follow a one-parameter exponential family. We consider score-, (standardized) residual-, and estimate-based CUSUM tests and show that their limiting null distributions take the form of the functions of Brownian bridges. Based on the obtained results, we then conduct a comparison study of the performance of CUSUM tests through the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings demonstrate that the standardized residual-based CUSUM test largely outperforms the others.