Diversity patterns of palms in Mexico using species distribution models

The family of palms (Arecaceae) comprises around 2,400 species distributed throughout the world, from which nearly 100 species have been reported to occur in Mexico. Given their importance and the lack of information about their distribution patterns in the country, we applied stacked species distribution models to estimate the current distribution patterns of palms in Mexico. Only 47 species had enough presence records for their modeling. About 50% of the models showed that Annual Precipitation had the greatest contribution to the potential distribution. From the species analyzed, 63% are distributed in the southeast of the country with Roystonea regia as the species with the greatest extent (367,550 km(2)) and Coccothrinax readii occupying the smaller potential distribution (9,850 km(2)). It was possible to identify regions of the country with high species richness and where the establishment of new natural protected areas would help to the conservation of palm trees in Mexico. The southeast of Mexico represents the highest richness (>10 species) with about 130,000 km(2), and the central slope of the Mexican Pacific, a fragmented landscape with a medium potential distribution (>5 species). Our results represent an important step to guide the establishment of conservation areas for the family Arecaceae in Mexico.