Assessing coincident neutrino detections using population models

被引：3

作者：

Capel, F. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Burgess, J. M. ^{[4
]}

Mortlock, D. J. ^{[5
,6
,7
]}

Padovani, P. ^{[8
,9
]}

机构：

[1] Max Planck Inst Phys & Astrophys, Fohringer Ring 6, D-80805 Munich, Germany

[2] Tech Univ Munich, Boltzmannstr 2, D-85748 Garching, Germany

[3] ORIGINS Excellence Cluster, Boltzmannstr 2, D-85748 Garching, Germany

[4] Max Planck Inst Extraterr Phys, Giessenbachstr 1, D-85748 Garching, Germany

[5] Imperial Coll London, Blackett Lab, Astrophys Grp, Prince Consort Rd, London SW7 2AZ, England

[6] Imperial Coll London, Dept Math, Stat Sect, London SW7 2AZ, England

[7] Stockholm Univ, Oskar Klein Ctr, Dept Astron, AlbaNova, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[8] European Southern Observ, Karl Schwarzschild Str 2, D-85748 Garching, Germany

[9] Associated INAF Osservatorio Astrofis & Sci Spazio, Via Piero Gobetti 93-3, I-40129 Bologna, Italy

来源：

ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS | 2022年 / 668卷

关键词：

neutrinos; astroparticle physics; methods; data analysis; HIGH-ENERGY NEUTRINO; TXS 0506+056; FERMI; BLAZARS; EMISSION; MULTIWAVELENGTH; CONSTRAINTS; CATALOG; ASTROPY; FLUX;

D O I：

10.1051/0004-6361/202243116

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

Several tentative associations between high-energy neutrinos and astrophysical sources have been recently reported, but a conclusive identification of these potential neutrino emitters remains challenging. We explore the use of Monte Carlo simulations of source populations to gain deeper insight into the physical implications of proposed individual source-neutrino associations. In particular, we focus on the IC170922A-TXS 0506+056 observation. Assuming a null model, we find a 7.6% chance of mistakenly identifying coincidences between gamma-ray flares from blazars and neutrino alerts in 10-year surveys. We confirm that a blazar-neutrino connection based on the gamma-ray flux is required to find a low chance coincidence probability and, therefore, a significant IC170922A-TXS 0506+056 association. We then assume this blazar-neutrino connection for the whole population and find that the ratio of neutrino to gamma-ray fluxes must be less than or similar to 10(-2) in order not to overproduce the total number of neutrino alerts seen by IceCube. For the IC170922A-TXS 0506+056 association to make sense, we must either accept this low flux ratio or suppose that only some rare sub-population of blazars is capable of high-energy neutrino production. For example, if we consider neutrino production only in blazar flares, we expect the flux ratio of between 10(-3) and 10(-1) to be consistent with a single coincident observation of a neutrino alert and flaring gamma-ray blazar. These constraints should be interpreted in the context of the likelihood models used to find the IC170922A-TXS 0506+056 association, which assumes a fixed power-law neutrino spectrum of E-2.13 for all blazars.

引用

页数：13

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