Monitoring and modeling the urban growth of two mid-sized Chilean cities

Chile's economic development model changed drastically in 1973. Public policy liberalization ended and the market became the principal entity for regulating growth, including urban growth. The implementation of this new model resulted in unprecedented urban growth, markedly impacting the landscape. In mid-sized cities, this spatial growth has been especially significant. Two examples of such mid-sized cities are Chillan and Los Angeles, located in the Biobio Region, in the so-called Central Valley. This research analyzed the land use/cover change in Chillan and Los Angeles from 1978 to 1998, identified the patterns of urban growth and the fragmentation of the urban space, applying GIS and remote sensing tools. The main driving forces of the urban changes were analyzed and the model to predict the land use/cover changes was applied. Our results show the importance of monitoring and modeling rapid urban growth for attaining sustainable mid-sized cities in developing countries that are strongly dependent on export of natural resources. Monitoring and modeling could also help to avoid a repetition of the errors that produced the unsustainable growth characteristic of large Latin American cities. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.