The Great Inflation and the Greenbook

被引：13

作者：

Carboni, Giacomo ^{[2
]}

Ellison, Martin ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, Oxford OX1 2UQ, England

[2] Directorate Gen Stat, European Cent Bank, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany

来源：

JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS | 2009年 / 56卷 / 06期

关键词：

Great Inflation; Greenbook; Learning; Monetary policy; CONVERGENCE; BELIEFS; POLICY; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.003

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

Can the story of evolving Federal Reserve beliefs in The Conquest of American Inflation simultaneously explain the Great Inflation and the forecasts published in the Greenbook during that time? if Sargent is correct then evolving beliefs should be reflected not only in policy outcomes but also in Greenbook forecasts. In this paper they are. By conditioning on the Greenbook, it is show that both inflation outcomes and Greenbook forecasts can be rationalised by evolving beliefs. The results improve on recent empirical evidence that has been criticised for relying on unrealistic beliefs that produce forecasts inconsistent with the Greenbook. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：831 / 841

页数：11

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