Current and Future Prevalence Estimates of Mild Cognitive Impairment, Dementia, and Its Subtypes in a Population-Based Sample of People 70 Years and Older in Norway: The HUNT Study

Background: Having accurate, up-to-date information on the epidemiology of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia is imperative. Objective: To determine the prevalence of MCI and dementia in Norway using data from a large population-based study. Methods: All people 70 + years of age, n= 19,403, in the fourth wave of the Trondelag Health Study (HUNT4) were invited to participate in the study HUNT4 70 + . Trained health personnel assessed participants using cognitive tests at a field station, at homes, or at their nursing home. Interviewers also completed a structured carer questionnaire in regard to participants suspected of having dementia. Clinical experts made diagnoses according to DSM-5 criteria. We calculated prevalence weighing the data to ensure population representativeness. Results: A total of 9,930 (51.2%) of the possible 19,403 people participated, and 9,663 of these had sufficient information for analysis. Standardized prevalence of dementia and MCI was 14.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.9-15.4) and 35.3% (95% CI 34.3-36.4), respectively. Dementia was more prevalent in women and MCI more prevalent in men. The most prevalent dementia subtype was Alzheimer's disease (57%). By adding data collected from a study of persons < 70 years in the same region, we estimate that there are 101,118 persons with dementia in Norway in 2020, and this is projected to increase to 236,789 and 380,134 in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Conclusion: We found a higher prevalence of dementia and MCI than most previous studies. The present prevalence and future projections are vital for preparing for future challenges to the healthcare system and the entire society.