The potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera correcta (Diptera: Tephrididae) in China based on eclosion rate model

The guava fruit fly, Bactrocera correcta (Bezzi) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is an invasive pest of fruit and vegetable crops that primarily inhabits Southeast Asia and which has the potential to become a major threat within both the Oriental and Australian oceanic regions, as well as California and Florida. In light of the threat posed, it is important to know the potential geographic distribution of this pest in quarantine work in order to provide an early warning and to prevent its widespread invasion effectively. In this study, the eclosion rate model was constructed from empirical biological data and analyzed using stepwise regression, based on the soil temperature and moisture data of Chinese meteorological stations, and mapped with ArcGIS. Using this information, the potential geographic distribution of B. correcta from January to December in China was predicted. The results showed that most regions in China were optimally suitable for B. correcta from May to September. Monitoring measures in the north parts of China should be taken from April to October, and as for Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, and Hainan provinces, the measures should be strengthened through the whole year.