The frequency and duration of US hurricane droughts

被引：21
作者：
Hall, Timothy [1 ]
Hereid, Kelly [2 ]
机构：
[1] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
[2] ACE Tempest Re, Stamford, CT USA
来源：
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2015年 / 42卷 / 09期
关键词：
hurricanes; statistical modeling; risk analysis; TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS; RISK;
D O I：
10.1002/2015GL063652
中图分类号：
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号：
07 ;
摘要：
As of the end of the 2014 hurricane season, the U.S. has experienced no major hurricane landfall since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, a drought that currently stands at 9years. Here we use a stochastic tropical cyclone model to calculate the mean waiting time for multiyear landfall droughts. We estimate that the mean time to wait for a 9year drought is 177years. We also find that the average probability of ending the drought with a major landfall in the next year is 0.39 and is independent of the drought duration, as one would expect for a Bernoulli process.
引用
收藏
页码：3482 / 3485
页数：4
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