Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling

被引：59

作者：

Tscheikner-Gratl, Franz ^{[1
,11
]}

Bellos, Vasilis ^{[2
]}

Schellart, Alma ^{[3
]}

Moreno-Rodenas, Antonio ^{[1
]}

Muthusamy, Manoranjan ^{[4
]}

Langeveld, Jeroen ^{[1
]}

Clemens, Francois ^{[1
,10
]}

Benedetti, Lorenzo ^{[5
]}

Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel ^{[6
]}

de Carvalho, Rita Fernandes ^{[7
]}

Breuer, Lutz ^{[8
]}

Shucksmith, James ^{[3
]}

Heuvelink, Gerard B. M. ^{[9
]}

Tait, Simon ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Delft Univ Technol, Civil Engn & Geosci, Water Management Dept, Stevinweg 1, NL-2628 CN Delft, Netherlands

[2] Natl Tech Univ Athens, Sch Rural & Surveying Engn, Lab Reclamat Works & Water Resources Management, 9 Iroon Polytech Str, Athens 15780, Greece

[3] Univ Sheffield, Dept Civil & Struct Engn, Pennine Water Grp, Mappin St, Sheffield S1 3JD, S Yorkshire, England

[4] Cranfield Univ, Sch Water Energy & Environm, Cranfield, Beds, England

[5] Waterways Doo, Gornji Vukojevac 10A, Lekenik 44272, Croatia

[6] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, England

[7] Univ Coimbra, Dept Civil Engn, MARE Marine & Environm Sci Ctr, P-3030788 Coimbra, Portugal

[8] Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management, D-35392 Giessen, Germany

[9] Wageningen Univ & Res, Soil Geog & Landscape Grp, Droevendaalsesteeg 3, NL-6708 BP Wageningen, Netherlands

[10] Deltares, Dept Hydraul Engn, POB 177, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands

[11] Delft Univ Technol, Civil Engn & Geosci, Integral Design & Management, Stevinweg 1, NL-2628 CN Delft, Netherlands

来源：

WATER RESEARCH | 2019年 / 150卷

关键词：

Uncertainty; Integrated catchment modelling; Sub-models of integrated modelling; Water quality; Complexity management; URBAN DRAINAGE; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; SCENARIO DISCOVERY; ROBUST STRATEGIES; DATA-DRIVEN; RAINFALL; QUANTIFICATION; CALIBRATION; MANAGEMENT; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1016/j.watres.2018.11.079

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This paper aims to stimulate discussion based on the experiences derived from the QUICS project (Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies). First it briefly discusses the current state of knowledge on uncertainties in sub-models of integrated catchment models and the existing frameworks for analysing uncertainty. Furthermore, it compares the relative approaches of both building and calibrating fully integrated models or linking separate sub-models. It also discusses the implications of model linkage on overall uncertainty and how to define an acceptable level of model complexity. This discussion includes, whether we should shift our attention from uncertainties due to linkage, when using linked models, to uncertainties in model structure by necessary simplification or by using more parameters. This discussion attempts to address the question as to whether there is an increase in uncertainty by linking these models or if a compensation effect could take place and that overall uncertainty in key water quality parameters actually decreases. Finally, challenges in the application of uncertainty analysis in integrated catchment water quality modelling, as encountered in this project, are discussed and recommendations for future research areas are highlighted. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：368 / 379

页数：12