The short-term and long-term deterrence effects of INS border and interior enforcement on undocumented immigration

This paper analyzes the short-term and long-term deterrence effects of INS border and interior enforcement. Utilizing FY1983-FY1997 border and interior apprehensions and patrol hours data from the INS, we estimate a four-variable VAR model and find that Border Patrol enforcement has significant short-term deterrence effects. These effects are short-lived as undocumented migrants seemingly adjust to new information. Moreover, the non-existent long-term effects are apparently the consequence of basic economic fundamentals: our analysis employing microdata from both Mexico and the US suggests that the wage gap between Mexico and the US is sufficiently large to maintain the illegal migratory flow. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.