Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue

被引:104
作者
Coutinho, F. A. B.
Burattini, M. N.
Lopez, L. F.
Massad, E.
机构
[1] Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, BR-01246903 Sao Paulo, Brazil
[2] HCFMUSP, LIM01, BR-01246903 Sao Paulo, Brazil
[3] Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England
基金
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词
dengue; vector-borne; Aedes aegypti; Aedes albopictus; overwinter; vertical transmission; modeling; non-autonomous systems;
D O I
10.1007/s11538-006-9108-6
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by (R) over bar, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when (R) over bar is greater than 1 it does. By not invading the population we mean that the number of infected individuals always decrease in subsequent seasons of transmission. Using the same threshold, all the qualitative features of the resulting epidemic can be understood. Our model suggests that trans-ovarial infection in the mosquitoes facilitates dengue overwintering. We also explain the delay between the peak in the mosquitoes population and the peak in dengue cases.
引用
收藏
页码:2263 / 2282
页数:20
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