Advances in Bayesian network modelling: Integration of modelling technologies

被引:247
作者
Marcot, Bruce G. [1 ]
Penman, Trent D. [2 ]
机构
[1] US Forest Serv, USDA, Portland, OR 97204 USA
[2] Univ Melbourne, Sch Ecosyst & Forest Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
关键词
Bayesian networks; Decision models; Model integration; Machine learning; Model validation; BELIEF NETWORKS; NEURAL-NETWORK; DEEP UNCERTAINTIES; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; RISK-ASSESSMENT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; BIG DATA; LAND-USE; MANAGEMENT; FRAMEWORK;
D O I
10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.09.016
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
Bayesian network (BN) modeling is a rapidly advancing field. Here we explore new methods by which BN model development and application are being joined with other tools and model frameworks. Advances include improving areas of Bayesian classifiers and machine-learning algorithms for model structuring and parameterization, and development of time-dynamic models. Increasingly, BN models are being integrated with: management decision networks; structural equation modeling of causal networks; Bayesian neural networks; combined discrete and continuous variables; object-oriented and agent-based models; state-and-transition models; geographic information systems; quantum probability; and other fields. Integrated BNs (IBNs) are becoming useful tools in risk analysis, risk management, and decision science for resource planning and environmental management. In the near future, IBNs may become self-structuring, self-learning systems fed by real-time monitoring data. Such advances may make model validation difficult, and may question model credibility, particularly if based on uncertain sources of knowledge systems and big data.
引用
收藏
页码:386 / 393
页数:8
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