Assessment of the sustainability of Mexico green investments in the road to Paris

To meet the Paris Agreement, Mexico is committed to reduce unconditionally 25% of its greenhouse gases emissions for the year 2030. Since the strategy to achieve the mitigation goals needs an increase in renewable energy sources, Mexico's national climate change policy package has already been launched, including the deployment of 13.5 GW of wind, 1 of biomass, 0.7 of geothermal, 1.75 of hydropower and 10.4 of solar energy in the period 2018-2030. However, these green investments planned are below the scenario proposed by IRENA compatible with the Paris Agreement. This paper assesses Mexico's green investments for the period 2018-2030 in terms of value added, employment, materials, land use, water and CO2eq emissions in a multiregional input-output framework and compare the results with the IRENA proposal. These green investments are expected to account for nearly an increase of 1% both of GDP and employment in Mexico and an expected mitigation of around 63 Mt CO2eq, once the new facilities are fully deployed. Nevertheless, the deployment and operation and maintenance phases will increase the emissions (0.82%), the water and material footprint (0.19 and 0.9%, respectively) and the land use (0.19%) with a substantial share of the positive and negative effects leakaged outside.