Demarcation and scaling of long-term seismogenesis

A space-time envelope of minor seismicity related to major shallow earthquakes is identified from observations of the long-term Precursory Scale Increase (Psi) phenomenon, which quantifies the three-stage faulting model of seismogenesis. The envelope, which includes the source area of the major earthquake, is here demarcated for 47 earthquakes from four regions, with tectonic regimes ranging from subduction to continental collision and continental transform. The earthquakes range in magnitude from 5.8 to 8.2, and include the 24 most recent mainshocks of magnitude 6.4 and larger in the San Andreas system of California, the Hellenic Arc region of Greece, and the New Zealand region, together with the six most recent mainshocks of magnitude 7.4 and larger in the Pacific Arc region of Japan. Also included are the destructive earthquakes that occurred at Kobe, Japan (1995, magnitude 7.2), Izmit, Turkey (1999, magnitude 7.4), and W.Tottori, Japan (2000, magnitude 7.3). The space (A(P)) in the space-time envelope is optimised with respect to the scale increase, while the time (T(P)) is the interval between the onset of the scale increase and the occurrence of the earthquake. A strong correlation is found between the envelope A(P)T(P) and the magnitude of the earthquake; hence the conclusion that the set of precursory earthquakes contained in the envelope is intrinsic to the seismogenic process. Yet A(P) and T(P) are correlated only weakly with each other, suggesting that A(P) is affected by differences in statical conditions, such as geological structure and lithology, and T(P) by differences in dynamical conditions, such as plate velocity. Among other scaling relations, predictive regressions are found between, on the one hand, the magnitude level of the precursory seismicity, and on the other hand, both T(P) and the major earthquake magnitude. Hence the method, as here applied to retrospective analysis, is potentially adaptable to long-range forecasting of the place, time and magnitude of major earthquakes.