Prediction of CH4 emissions from potential natural wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century

The alpine wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are ecosystems vulnerable to global climate change. It has been recognized that future climate change may have a significant impact on methane (CH4) emissions from the plateau, while less attention has been paid to predicting temporal and spatial variations in CH4 emissions from TP natural wetlands. In this study, we used an integrated model framework based on the CH4MOD(wetland), TOPMODEL and TEM models to predict CH4 emissions from potential natural wetlands on the TP under IPCC AR5 scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The model estimates suggest that the mean area-weighted CH4 fluxes will increase from 4.45 +/- 0.42 g m(-2) yr(-1) in 2006 to 479 +/- 072, 5.99 +/- 0.85 and 11.53 +/- 1.33 g m(-2) yr(-1) under 3 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios), respectively, by 2100. The dominant drivers stimulating CH4 emissions are air temperature, precipitation and net primary productivity (NPP). Spatially, CH4 fluxes and emissions showed a decreasing trend from south to north and from east to west. In response to climate change, a total of 0.42 +/- 0.06, 0.54 +/- 0.09 and 1.01 +/- 0.12 Tg yr(-1) of CH4 emissions will be emitted from the TP's potential natural wetlands by the end of this century under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.