Research on the Safety Risk Structure and Early Warning System of Agriculture

The paper proposes the quality risk of the formation mechanism and risk structure of agricultural production, process and product, and establishes quality and risk systems of the "2-3 structure" mode of agricultural products; with the production of live pigs to farmers as an example. We use the Rough set theory and MATLAB tool to extract a sample of data-oriented implicit risk, seek for the decision-making knowledge rule, and verify the "2-3 structure" model of quality and risk of agricultural products. On the basis of it, three types of risk will be essential to theory of Calibration Risk, infrastructure risk and credit risk. The raised risk tree shows the high probability of the risk derivation. According to the model, using the Fishbone diagram and the AHP, it establishes modular system of safety assessment of agricultural products, and designs the early-warning indicator system to make up the deficiencies of the HACCP, GAP, and GMP methods. Using the proposed amendments G(1)-model in combination with expert data the paper gives factor levels of agricultural production systems module; it proposes the "membership degree frequency method" for regional safety assessment and early warning of agricultural products. Using sampling data of pig breeding farmers in Jilin, we verify evaluation index system and the validity of method presented in this paper. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.