Computing Elastic-Rebound-Motivated Earthquake Probabilities in Unsegmented Fault Models: A New Methodology Supported by Physics-Based Simulators

被引:30
作者
Field, Edward H. [1 ]
机构
[1] US Geol Survey, Denver Fed Ctr, Lakewood, CO 80225 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; VIRTUAL CALIFORNIA; RUPTURE FORECAST;
D O I
10.1785/0120140094
中图分类号
P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];
学科分类号
0708 ; 070902 ;
摘要
A methodology is presented for computing elastic-rebound-based probabilities in an unsegmented fault or fault system, which involves computing along-fault averages of renewal-model parameters. The approach is less biased and more self-consistent than a logical extension of that applied most recently for multisegment ruptures in California. It also enables the application of magnitude-dependent aperiodicity values, which the previous approach does not. Monte Carlo simulations are used to analyze long-term system behavior, which is generally found to be consistent with that of physics-based earthquake simulators. Results cast doubt that recurrence-interval distributions at points on faults look anything like traditionally applied renewal models, a fact that should be considered when interpreting paleoseismic data. We avoid such assumptions by changing the "probability of what" question (from offset at a point to the occurrence of a rupture, assuming it is the next event to occur). The new methodology is simple, although not perfect in terms of recovering long-term rates in Monte Carlo simulations. It represents a reasonable, improved way to represent first-order elastic-rebound predictability, assuming it is there in the first place, and for a system that clearly exhibits other unmodeled complexities, such as aftershock triggering.
引用
收藏
页码:544 / 559
页数:16
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