A joint individual-based model coupling growth and mortality reveals that tree vigor is a key component of tropical forest dynamics

被引:23
作者
Aubry-Kientz, Melaine [1 ]
Rossi, Vivien [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Boreux, Jean-Jacques [5 ]
Herault, Bruno [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Antilles Guyane, UMR Ecol Forets Guyane, F-97387 Kourou, France
[2] CIRAD, UMR Ecol Forets Guyane, F-97387 Kourou, France
[3] CIRAD, UPR Bsef, Montpellier, France
[4] Univ Yaounde, UMMISCO UMI 209, Yaounde, Cameroon
[5] Univ Liege, Dept Sci & Gest Environm, Arlon, Belgium
关键词
Bayesian framework; estimation method; individual-based model; linked models; MCMC; Paracou; tropical forest dynamic; WOOD DENSITY; TRAITS; SIZE; SURVIVAL; SENSITIVITY; COMPETITION; NOTHOFAGUS; INDICATORS; STRATEGIES; DIVERSITY;
D O I
10.1002/ece3.1532
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Tree vigor is often used as a covariate when tree mortality is predicted from tree growth in tropical forest dynamic models, but it is rarely explicitly accounted for in a coherent modeling framework. We quantify tree vigor at the individual tree level, based on the difference between expected and observed growth. The available methods to join nonlinear tree growth and mortality processes are not commonly used by forest ecologists so that we develop an inference methodology based on an MCMC approach, allowing us to sample the parameters of the growth and mortality model according to their posterior distribution using the joint model likelihood. We apply our framework to a set of data on the 20-year dynamics of a forest in Paracou, French Guiana, taking advantage of functional trait-based growth and mortality models already developed independently. Our results showed that growth and mortality are intimately linked and that the vigor estimator is an essential predictor of mortality, highlighting that trees growing more than expected have a far lower probability of dying. Our joint model methodology is sufficiently generic to be used to join two longitudinal and punctual linked processes and thus may be applied to a wide range of growth and mortality models. In the context of global changes, such joint models are urgently needed in tropical forests to analyze, and then predict, the effects of the ongoing changes on the tree dynamics in hyperdiverse tropical forests.
引用
收藏
页码:2457 / 2465
页数:9
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