A 3-year prognostic score for adults with cystic fibrosis

被引：48
作者：
Nkam, L. [1 ]
Lambert, J. [2 ]
Latouche, A. [3 ]
Bellis, G. [4 ]
Burgel, P. R. [5 ,6 ]
Hocine, M. N. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, Lab Modelisat Epidemiol & Surveillance Risques Sa, 292 Rue St Martin, F-75003 Paris, France
[2] Hop St Louis, AP HP, Serv Biostat & Informat Med, Paris, France
[3] Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, Ctr Etud & Rech Informat & Commun, Paris, France
[4] Inst Natl Etud Demog, Paris, France
[5] Hop Cochin, AP HP, Serv Pneumol, Paris, France
[6] Univ Paris 05, Sorbonne Paris Cite, Paris, France
来源：
JOURNAL OF CYSTIC FIBROSIS | 2017年 / 16卷 / 06期
关键词：
Cystic fibrosis; Prognostic factors; Registry data; Logistic model; Prognostic score; LUNG-TRANSPLANT; SURVIVAL; MORTALITY; PREDICTION; MODEL; IMPUTATION; DEATH;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jcf.2017.03.004
中图分类号：
R56 [呼吸系及胸部疾病];
学科分类号：
摘要：
Background: Therapeutic progress in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) has resulted in improved prognosis over the past decades. We aim to reevaluate prognostic factors of CF and provide a prognostic score to predict the risk of death or lung transplantation (LT) within a 3-year period in adult patients. Methods: We developed a logistic model using data from the French CF Registry and combined the coefficients into a prognostic score. The discriminative abilities of the model and the prognostic score were assessed by c-statistic. The prognostic score was validated using a 10-fold cross validation. Results: The risk of death or LT within 3 years was related to eight characteristics. The development and the validation provided excellent results for the prognostic score; the c-statistic was 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Conclusion: The score developed to predict 3-year death or LT in adults with CF might be useful for clinicians to identify patients requiring specialized evaluation for LT. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码：702 / 708
页数：7
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