A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of the Outcome Expectancy Construct in Physical Activity Research

Background Cognition-based theories dominate physical activity (PA) research, and many include a construct broadly defined as "beliefs about the consequences of behavior" (e.g., outcome expectancies, perceived benefits) hereafter referred to as perceived consequences. Purpose With the quantity of available research on this topic, it is important to examine whether the literature supports perceived consequences as a predictor of PA. Methods A meta-analysis examining longitudinal associations between perceived consequences and PA in adults was conducted. Studies were eligible if (a) perceived consequences were measured at a time point prior to PA, and (b) the target behavior was a form of PA. An omnibus meta-analysis estimating the mean effect of all included studies, and separate meta-analyses for perceived consequences content categories were conducted. Results This search yielded 6,979 articles, of these, 110 studies met inclusion criteria. Studies were published between 1989 and 2020, with sample sizes ranging from 16 to 2,824. All studies were evaluated as moderate to high quality. A small positive bivariate association was identified (r = 0.11; 95% CI [0.09, 0.13]) between perceived consequences and PA. Significant associations were identified for time, health, self-evaluative, psychological, and affective consequences. There was no association between perceived weight-related consequences and PA. Conclusions The findings emphasize the variability with which existing studies have examined perceived consequences in the PA literature. Future research might examine whether these are important distinctions for understanding PA. Overall, the results suggest utility in examining perceived consequences as a predictor of PA, but constructs with more robust associations may require priority.