Emergent policy-making with macroeconometric models

Despite extensive criticism from academic economists, large macroeconometric-models have thrived in government. This paper considers why they have been found useful. It argues that the way economists describe the forecasting and policy process can be misleading and the actual process by which policy emerges is quite different. It then uses accounts by UK government economic advisers and politicians to describe the role of models in this 'emergent' policy-making process. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.