Can the dietary conservatism of predators compensate for positive frequency dependent selection against rare, conspicuous prey?

The evolution of conspicuous colouration in prey is puzzling because such coloration attracts the attention of predators. Anti-apostatic selection, in which rare prey forms are predated disproportionately often, is a second potential obstacle to the evolution of conspicuous colouration in prey, as bright novel prey forms are likely to be very rare when they first appear in populations. It has recently been postulated that dietary conservatism in predators, an extended feeding avoidance of novel prey, would allow novel conspicuous prey to survive and multiply despite anti-apostatic and conspicuousness effects. We tested this hypothesis for a novel prey type arising in an otherwise cryptic population, providing a direct test of whether anti-apostatic selection or the predators' wariness to attack the novel prey type is the more important force acting on the novel conspicuous prey. We conducted our experiment in the "Novel World"; an experimental system designed to test predators' foraging decisions in a large landscape. We found that the conspicuous, novel prey suffered high initial costs of conspicuousness compared with cryptic prey, since most of these prey were attacked during the first "generation", with no opportunity to "reproduce". However, a subset of the 17 birds (24%) were following a dietary conservative foraging strategy and they were reluctant to eat the novel prey. Interestingly these birds were not more neophobic or less explorative. Our data demonstrate how difficult it is for the novel conspicuous prey to survive in cryptic populations, but they also highlight the importance of the predator's foraging strategies in helping to promote the evolution and maintenance of aposematism.