Structural stability theory of two-dimensional fluid flow under stochastic forcing

Large-scale mean flows often emerge in turbulent fluids. In this work, we formulate a stability theory, the stochastic structural stability theory (SSST), for the emergence of jets under external random excitation. We analytically investigate the structural stability of a two-dimensional homogeneous fluid enclosed in a channel and subjected to homogeneous random forcing. We show that two generic competing mechanisms control the instability that gives rise to the emergence of an infinitesimal jet: advection of the eddy vorticity by the mean flow that is shown to be jet forming and advection of the vorticity gradient of the jet by the eddies that is shown to hinder the formation of the mean flow. We show that stochastic forcing with small streamwise coherence and an amplitude larger than a certain threshold leads to the emergence of jets in the channel through a bifurcation of the non-linear SSST system.