Methodology for Risk Analysis of Industrial Enterprises Based on the Probability Distribution

被引：0

作者：

Potashnik, Yaroslav S. ^{[1
]}

Kuznetsov, Victor P. ^{[1
]}

Garina, Ekaterina P. ^{[1
]}

Kuznetsova, Svetlana N. ^{[1
]}

Romanovskaya, Elena, V ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Minin Nizhny Novgorod State Pedag Univ, Nizhnii Novgorod, Russia

来源：

IMITATION MARKET MODELING IN DIGITAL ECONOMY: GAME THEORETIC APPROACHES | 2022年 / 368卷

关键词：

Risk; Risk analysis; Probability distribution; Innovative project;

D O I：

10.1007/978-3-030-93244-2_79

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

Risk analysis of industrial enterprises is often based on averaged single estimates of damage/gain and their probabilities. At the same time, risks are random values, the consequences of which are a certain interval, where the individual probability corresponds to each value. In this regard, the current practice of analysis makes it difficult for specialists to develop the most adequate measures for risk management and reduces the efficiency of activities and the sustainability of industrial enterprises. One of the reasons for this situation, in our opinion, is the insufficient methodological elaboration of risk analysis based on the probability distribution. The present study is devoted to solving this problem. The article proposes a methodology based on predicting statistical indicators of the consequences of risk (mathematical expectation, variance, standard deviation), plotting a distribution curve, determining the risk characteristics required for making further decisions on responding. The methodology is based on statistical analysis, tools of probability theory and expert assessments.

引用

页码：734 / 740

页数：7

共 11 条

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