Arid/humid patterns over Asia in response to national-committed emission reductions under the Paris agreement

被引：6

作者：

Wang, Fang ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Jintao ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China

来源：

PROGRESS IN EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE | 2020年 / 7卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Arid/humid patterns; Aridity index; Climate change; Asia; INDC; CLIMATE-CHANGE; FUTURE CHANGES; DEGREES-C; DROUGHT; MULTIMODEL; ZONES; CMIP5; PRECIPITATION; ARIDITY; MODELS;

D O I：

10.1186/s40645-020-00325-3

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The evolution of regional arid/humid patterns caused by global climate change deserves attention. We investigated the changes in the area of arid/humid climate regions over Asia under the aegis of national-committed emission reductions to comply with the Paris Agreement using an ensemble of 17 global climate models (GCMs) from the Fifth Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives. Our results indicated an overall trend towards aridity in a future warmer climate based on an aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET). In the future, the humid region will contract and the arid region and arid/humid transition zones will expand. Compared with the present period, arid/humid region switch is projected to occur in a land area of 2512.8 x 10(3) km(2) over Asia under the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)-pledge scenario. If global warming is controlled to the ambitious 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C scenarios instead of that of the INDC-pledge scenario, a decrease in the changes in the area of arid/humid regions by more than half would be expected. In addition, the arid/humid regions with continuous global warming are estimated to contract/expand greatly. Changes in the spatial pattern of the arid/humid zones over Asia show strong similarities between multi-model simulations, although there are some differences in detail.

引用

页数：10

共 49 条

[21] Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China [J].

Huang, Jianping ;

Ma, Jieru ;

Guan, Xiaodan ;

Li, Yue ;

He, Yongli .

ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2019, 36 (09) :922-937

[22]

Huang JP, 2017, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V7, P417, DOI [10.1038/nclimate3275, 10.1038/NCLIMATE3275]

[23] Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [J].

Jones, B. ;

O'Neill, B. C. .

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2016, 11 (08)

[24] Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate and climate zones in China [J].

Li MingXing ;

Ma ZhuGuo .

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN, 2013, 58 (4-5) :531-544

[25] Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 arid 2 °C [J].

Liu, Jiawei ;

Xu, Haiming ;

Deng, Jiechun .

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS, 2018, 9 (02) :427-439

[26] Sensitivity of arid/humid patterns in China to future climate change under a high-emissions scenario [J].

Ma Danyang ;

Deng Haoyu ;

Yin Yunhe ;

Wu Shaohong ;

Zheng Du .

JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES, 2019, 29 (01) :29-48

[27]

Masson-Delmotte, 2018, CLIM CHANG 2014 IMP, P541

[28] Improved seasonal drought forecasts using reference evapotranspiration anomalies [J].

McEvoy, Daniel J. ;

Huntington, Justin L. ;

Mejia, John F. ;

Hobbins, Michael T. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2016, 43 (01) :377-385

[29] Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies [J].

Pierce, David W. ;

Barnett, Tim P. ;

Santer, Benjamin D. ;

Gleckler, Peter J. .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2009, 106 (21) :8441-8446

[30] How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? [J].

Reichler, Thomas ;

Kim, Junsu .

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2008, 89 (03) :303-+

← 1 2 3 4 5 →