Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries

被引：50

作者：

Baldini, Lisa M. ^{[1
,11
]}

Baldini, James U. L. ^{[1
]}

McElwaine, Jim N. ^{[1
]}

Frappier, Amy Benoit ^{[2
]}

Asmerom, Yemane ^{[3
]}

Liu, Kam-biu ^{[4
]}

Prufer, Keith M. ^{[5
]}

Ridley, Harriet E. ^{[1
]}

Polyak, Victor ^{[3
]}

Kennett, Douglas J. ^{[6
]}

Macpherson, Colin G. ^{[1
]}

Aquino, Valorie V. ^{[5
]}

Awe, Jaime ^{[7
,8
]}

Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M. ^{[9
,10
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Durham, Dept Earth Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England

[2] Skidmore Coll, Dept Geosci, 815 North Broadway, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 USA

[3] Univ New Mexico, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Albuquerque, NM 87106 USA

[4] Louisiana State Univ, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA

[5] Univ New Mexico, Dept Anthropol, Albuquerque, NM 87106 USA

[6] Penn State Univ, Dept Anthropol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[7] Inst Archaeol, Belmopan, Belize

[8] No Arizona Univ, Dept Anthropol, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[9] Univ Cambridge, Dept Earth Sci, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, England

[10] Ruhr Univ Bochum, Inst Geol Mineral & Geophys, Unv Str 150, D-44801 Bochum, Germany

[11] Univ Durham, Dept Geog, Durham DH1 3LE, England

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2016年 / 6卷

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE; HURRICANE ACTIVITY; MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION; CLIMATE; VARIABILITY; RECORD; PROJECTIONS; INTENSITY; FREQUENCY; RAINFALL;

D O I：

10.1038/srep37522

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A. D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since similar to 1870 A. D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.

引用

页数：8

共 65 条

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