Background Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) is an easily quantifiable and inexpensive metabolic marker, which is often used to assess cardiovascular disease and diabetes. However, there have been limited studies on the association between FPG and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) risk in nonobese people, especially in Chinese individuals. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between FPG and NAFLD in nonobese Chinese people with normal blood lipid levels. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 9767 nonobese participants with normal blood lipid levels without NAFLD were recruited and prospectively followed for 5 years. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the risk factors of NAFLD. Moreover, a Cox model with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting (the cubic spline smoothing) were used to identify the nonlinear association between FPG and NAFLD. Results During the 5-year follow-up, 841 (8.61%) participants were diagnosed with NAFLD. The good functional results (without NAFLD) estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method for 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, and 5 years were 98.84, 95.35, 91.67%, 87.57 and 74.86%, respectively. Additionally, through the Cox proportional hazard model, after adjusting for other covariates, there was an independent positive correlation between FPG and increased NAFLD risk (HR:1.21, 95% CI:1.15-1.28,P < 0.0001), and the NAFLD risk was incrementally higher with the rising FPG quartile. The nonlinear association between FPG and NAFLD was visualized by cubic spline smoothing technique. It was calculated that the inflection point of FPG was 5.54. When FPG <= 5.54, there was a positive correlation between FPG and the risk of NAFLD (HR:2.20, 95% CI:1.78-2.73,P < 0.0001). When FPG > 5.54, the risk of NAFLD increased by 50% (HR:1.10, 95% CI:1.02-1.18,P = 0.0159) compared with the left side of the inflection point and gradually leveled off. Conclusions In a nonobese Chinese population with normal lipid levels, there is an independent nonlinear association between FPG and NAFLD, and the increase in FPG may indicate an increased risk of NAFLD. Additionally, this independent association is more obvious in the short stature population.
