The expected value premium

被引:42
作者
Chen, Long [2 ]
Petkova, Ralitsa [3 ]
Zhang, Lu [1 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Michigan, Stephen M Ross Sch Business, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
[2] Michigan State Univ, Eli Broad Coll Business, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
[3] Texas A&M Univ, Mays Business Sch, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
[4] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
关键词
value; growth; time-varying expected returns; dividend growth;
D O I
10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.04.001
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Fama and French [2002. The equity premium. Journal of Finance 57, 637-659] estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure expected rates of capital gain. We apply their method to study the value premium. From 1945 to 2005, the expected value premium is on average 6.1% per annum, consisting of an expected dividend growth component of 4.4% and an expected dividend price ratio component of 1.7%. Unlike the equity premium, the value premium has been largely stable over the last half century. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:269 / 280
页数:12
相关论文
共 31 条
[1]  
BLANCHARD OJ, 1993, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P75
[2]   STOCK RETURNS AND THE TERM STRUCTURE [J].
CAMPBELL, JY .
JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS, 1987, 18 (02) :373-399
[3]   Bad beta, good beta [J].
Campbell, JY ;
Vuolteenaho, T .
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, 2004, 94 (05) :1249-1275
[4]   Equity premia as low as three percent? Evidence from analysts' earnings forecasts for domestic and international stock markets [J].
Claus, J ;
Thomas, J .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2001, 56 (05) :1629-1666
[5]   The value spread [J].
Cohen, RB ;
Polk, C ;
Vuolteenaho, T .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2003, 58 (02) :609-641
[6]   Value versus glamour [J].
Conrad, J ;
Cooper, M ;
Kaul, G .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2003, 58 (05) :1969-1995
[7]   Rational asset prices [J].
Constantinides, GM .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2002, 57 (04) :1567-1591
[8]   Characteristics, covariances, and average returns: 1929 to 1997 [J].
Davis, JL ;
Fama, EF ;
French, KR .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 2000, 55 (01) :389-406
[9]   DOES THE STOCK-MARKET OVERREACT [J].
DEBONDT, WFM ;
THALER, R .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 1985, 40 (03) :793-805
[10]   Expected return, realized return, and asset pricing tests [J].
Elton, EJ .
JOURNAL OF FINANCE, 1999, 54 (04) :1199-1220