The Use of Weather Forecasts to Characterise Near-Surface Optical Turbulence

The propagation of optical and electromagnetic waves is affected by small-scale atmospheric turbulence, quantified by the structure parameter of the refractive index. In the atmospheric surface layer, the mean structure parameter C-n(2) , as averaged over the large-scale turbulence, relates to meteorological forcings through well-documented relationships. Present-day numerical weather forecast models routinely produce these forcings at the global scale. This study introduces a method where the products of such a model are used to calculate the mean optical turbulence near the surface. The method is evaluated against scintillometry measurements over climatologically distinct sites in Western Europe. The diurnal cycle modulation, and regional and seasonal contrasts, are all reproduced by our predictions. Hence, the present method explains and predicts some essential aspects of the meteorological variability of C-n(2) near the surface. The noted discrepancies combine instrumental limitations, site peculiarities, differences related to distinct averaging procedures, and model errors, notably from weather forecasts. The minute-scale fluctuations of the measured scintillation rate are also analysed in the light of the forecast weather conditions. Fair-weather daytime periods consistently show a small short-term variability compared to the nighttime and perturbed weather periods. Thus, this short-term variability appears to have a predictable component.