Direct and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation on alpine seed banks in the Tibetan Plateau

Plant community responses to global environmental change focus primarily on aboveground vegetation; however, the important role of the seed bank is frequently neglected. Specifically, the direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and precipitation on seed banks remain poorly understood, yet seed banks provide a vital source of ecosystem resilience to global environmental change. We used a structural equation model to explore the direct and indirect effects of temperature, precipitation, and other biotic and abiotic factors on soil seed bank community composition using 1,026 soil seed bank samples from 57 sites along an elevation gradient that served as a space-for-time substitution for changing climate in the Tibetan Plateau. Seed bank richness was negatively correlated with both precipitation and temperature, but neither climate factor affected seed bank density. Temperature was also negatively correlated with vegetation species richness, which was positively correlated with seed bank richness and density. Both precipitation and temperature were positively correlated with soil total N, and total N was negatively correlated with vegetation richness. Both precipitation and temperature were negatively correlated with soil pH, and soil pH was negatively correlated with vegetation richness, but positively correlated with seed bank richness and density. Increasing precipitation and temperature would decrease seed bank diversity through direct effects as well as indirectly by decreasing vegetation diversity. Soil pH and total N emerged as the most important soil abiotic factors for seed bank diversity. Increasing precipitation and temperature under climate change may increase the extinction risk of some species in the seed bank by altering bet-hedging and risk-spreading strategies, which will degrade natural restoration ability and ultimately ecosystem resilience. This research is important because it identifies the potential underlying mechanistic basis of climate change impacts on seed banks through effects of aboveground vegetation and belowground biotic and abiotic factors.