Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Marine Heat Waves over the Aegean, Ionian, and Cretan Seas from 2008-2021

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an important factor and indicator of the sea water quality, with various ecological and anthropogenic implications. We used high-resolution satellite-derived SST data, in tandem with field observations and long-term meteorological data, to investigate the spatial and interannual SST variability over the Aegean, Ionian, and Cretan (AIC) Seas during the recent 14-year period (2008-2021). Increasing trends were identified for most of the sub-basins of the AIC Seas. The numbers and durations (days) of the marine heat waves (MHWs) have significantly increased, especially during the last quadrennial period (2018-2021). Changes have been detected in both the maximum and minimum values; however, the trend of the mean annual values is mainly associated with the interannual increases in the lowest values (weaker minima during the cold seasons). The interannual variability and the increasing positive trends of the air temperature are very similar to the SST variations, showing a 5-to-10-day lag between the seasonal time series of the two parameters for all regions; however, extreme atmospheric events (e.g., cold fronts or heat waves) have a more direct impact on the SST variability (zero lag). MHWs were more frequent over the northern Aegean Sea, especially in Thermaikos Gulf, which is characterized as a "hot spot" for MHWs. MHWs were rarer over the southern regions, especially over the southeastern Aegean and Cretan Seas. A stratified upper ocean, controlled by buoyant brackish plumes, such as the Black Sea Waters (BSW) in the northern Aegean, may increase the heat storage capacity of the surface water masses, contributing to the further warming of the ocean. This was the case in the summer of 2021, which was a unique year for the AIC Seas, and especially for the northern Aegean, which revealed the highest SST values among all the study years. The satellite-derived observations of the 2008-2021 period showed increasing trends for all coastal waters, strong trend slopes for most of the coasts of the northern Aegean and central Ionian Seas, and milder trend slopes in the eastern Aegean.