Phenotyping individuals with newly-diagnosed type 2 diabetes at risk for all-cause mortality: a single centre observational, prospective study

Background Type 2 diabetes (T2D) shows a high mortality rate, dependent on disease duration, comorbidities and glucose control over time. Data on patients with short disease duration are scanty. Methods We prospectively followed a cohort of newly-diagnosed T2D patients referring to a single diabetes centre, treated according to the international guidelines and checked every 6-12 months. All-cause mortality and major cardiovascular (CV) events were registered. Results 289 patients out of 3019 consecutive first attendances matched inclusion criteria and were included in the observation. Mean follow-up was 51.2 months. At 31 December 2018, 253 patients were alive and 36 deceased. At baseline, deceased individuals were older, with lower eGFR and lower uric acid, higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation. During the follow-up, 18 non-fatal CV events were adjudicated; patients with incident CV disease (CVD) differed at baseline for sex, previous history of CVD and retinopathy, higher use of secretagogues and lower use of metformin. At multivariate analysis, age and previous CVD were the only independent determinants of all-cause mortality and incident CVD, respectively. In deceased individuals, eGFR slope was markedly unstable and Delta eGFR at the end of the follow-up was higher (p < 0.001), and predicted mortality. Conclusion Newly-diagnosed T2D patients followed according to the best clinical practice show a mortality rate similar to that reported in more complicated patients with longer disease duration; none of the clinical and biochemical variables commonly measured at baseline can predict mortality or incident CVD; early metformin use seems to be associated with no risk of prevalent or incident retinopathy.