Ensemble forecasts of air quality in eastern China - Part 1: Model description and implementation of the MarcoPolo-Panda prediction system, version 1

被引：41

作者：

Brasseur, Guy P. Z. ^{[1
,2
]}

Xie, Ying ^{[3
]}

Petersen, Anna Katinka ^{[1
]}

Bouarar, Idir ^{[1
]}

Flemming, Johannes ^{[4
]}

Gauss, Michael ^{[5
]}

Jiang, Fei ^{[6
]}

Kouznetsov, Rostislav ^{[7
]}

Kranenburg, Richard ^{[8
]}

Mijling, Bas ^{[9
]}

Peuch, Vincent-Henri ^{[4
]}

Pommier, Matthieu ^{[5
]}

Segers, Arjo ^{[8
]}

Sofiev, Mikhail ^{[7
]}

Timmermans, Renske ^{[8
]}

van der A, Ronald ^{[10
]}

Walters, Stacy ^{[2
]}

Xu, Jianming ^{[3
]}

Zhou, Guangqiang ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[3] Shanghai Meteorol Serv, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[4] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England

[5] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway

[6] Nanjing Univ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[7] Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland

[8] TNO, Utrecht, Netherlands

[9] Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

[10] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

来源：

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT | 2019年 / 12卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOL; TROPOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; TRANSPORT MODEL; SURFACE OZONE; EMISSIONS; DISPERSION; FRAMEWORK; EUROPE; UNCERTAINTIES; ASSIMILATION;

D O I：

10.5194/gmd-12-33-2019

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

An operational multi-model forecasting system for air quality including nine different chemical transport models has been developed and provides daily forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter for the 37 largest urban areas of China (population higher than 3 million in 2010). These individual forecasts as well as the mean and median concentrations for the next 3 days are displayed on a publicly accessible website (http://www.marcopolo-panda. eu, last access: 7 December 2018). The paper describes the forecasting system and shows some selected illustrative examples of air quality predictions. It presents an intercomparison of the different forecasts performed during a given period of time (1-15 March 2017) and highlights recurrent differences between the model output as well as systematic biases that appear in the median concentration values. Pathways to improve the forecasts by the multi-model system are suggested.

引用

页码：33 / 67

页数：35

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