Comment on Cooke's classical method

被引：65

作者：

Clemen, Robert T. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Duke Univ, Fuqua Sch Business, Durham, NC 27708 USA

来源：

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 2008年 / 93卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/j.ress.2008.02.003

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

Several of the papers in this special issue are in one way or another linked to Cooke's "classical" method for combining expert probability distributions. This comment focuses on characteristics of that method. In particular, I consider two questions: does the weighting scheme give the experts a positive incentive to report their beliefs honestly for each variable? How does Cooke's method perform when evaluated out-of-sample? (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：760 / 765

页数：6

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