Clam aquaculture profitability under changing environmental risks

As filter feeders, mollusks' growth is completely reliant on the natural environment. This leaves clam aquaculture, and more generally molluskan aquaculture, highly susceptible to environmental risks such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) and low salinity events. As marine environments change, whether due to climatic or nutrient related variations, there may be new risk combinations that farmers have yet to encounter. To analyze the financial effects of environmental risks on clam farmers in the Gulf of Mexico, we conducted a Monte-Carlo experiment, varying risk combinations and correlations among scenarios. Simultaneous stressors showed a significant impact on individual firms, decreasing average profit by 71% and internal rate of return (IRR) by 83% when compared to best case baseline scenarios without environmental risk, indicating a potential need for risk mitigation strategies. While our analysis focuses on Florida Gulf of Mexico clam farmers, the model presented is applicable to molluskan aquaculture globally.