New Generation of Climate Models Track Recent Unprecedented Changes in Earth's Radiation Budget Observed by CERES

被引：55

作者：

Loeb, Norman G. ^{[1
]}

Wang, Hailan ^{[2
]}

Allan, Richard P. ^{[3
,4
]}

Andrews, Timothy ^{[5
]}

Armour, Kyle ^{[6
]}

Cole, Jason N. S. ^{[7
]}

Dufresne, Jean-Louis ^{[8
]}

Forster, Piers ^{[9
]}

Gettelman, Andrew ^{[10
]}

Guo, Huan ^{[11
]}

Mauritsen, Thorsten ^{[12
]}

Ming, Yi ^{[11
]}

Paynter, David ^{[11
]}

Proistosescu, Cristian ^{[13
,14
,15
]}

Stuecker, Malte F. ^{[16
,17
]}

Willen, Ulrika ^{[18
]}

Wyser, Klaus ^{[18
]}

机构：

[1] NASA, Langley Res Ctr, Hampton, VA 23665 USA

[2] Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Hampton, VA USA

[3] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England

[4] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Reading, Berks, England

[5] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[6] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[7] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC, Canada

[8] Intitut Pierre & Simon Laplace, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France

[9] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[10] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[11] Princeton Univ, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, NOAA, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[12] Stockholm Univ, Dept Meteorol, Stockholm, Sweden

[13] Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[14] Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL USA

[15] Univ Illinois, Dept Geol, Champaign, IL USA

[16] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Oceanog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[17] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[18] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, Norrkoping, Sweden

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2020年 / 47卷 / 05期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会; 欧洲研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

LOW-CLOUD COVER; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE-CHANGE; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; SPATIAL-PATTERN; GLOBAL CLOUD; SENSITIVITY; FEEDBACK; DEPENDENCE; ATMOSPHERE; CONSTRAINTS;

D O I：

10.1029/2019GL086705

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We compare top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes observed by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and simulated by seven general circulation models forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary conditions. In response to increased SSTs along the equator and over the eastern Pacific (EP) following the so-called global warming "hiatus" of the early 21st century, simulated TOA flux changes are remarkably similar to CERES. Both show outgoing shortwave and longwave TOA flux changes that largely cancel over the west and central tropical Pacific, and large reductions in shortwave flux for EP low-cloud regions. A model's ability to represent changes in the relationship between global mean net TOA flux and surface temperature depends upon how well it represents shortwave flux changes in low-cloud regions, with most showing too little sensitivity to EP SST changes, suggesting a "pattern effect" that may be too weak compared to observations.

引用

页数：10

共 62 条

[1] Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity [J].