The role of renewable energy in achieving Turkey's INDC

The aim of this study is to analyse impacts of renewable energy sources in achieving Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets of Turkey. INDCs as a part the Paris Agreement are based on national circumstances of countries on climate change. In order to reach the global goal of the Paris Agreement, countries shall monitor, update and upgrade their INDCs. The overall target of Turkish INDC is to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 21 per cent from the Business as Usual (BaU) level by 2030. In this study, three scenarios are developed namely Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC. These scenarios are used to analyse impacts of utilization of renewable energy on INDC target of Turkey. It is projected that Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC can reduce cumulative 566, 511 and 428 million tons of CO2 emissions respectively. These mitigation amounts could correspondingly provide 32, 29 and 24 per cent of the cumulative emission reduction targets in Turkey's INDC. Total additional costs of Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC scenarios are estimated as 12.52, 11.80 and 10.73 billion USD for the period of 2018-2030. Average unit costs of emissions reduction vary between 6.36 and 61.13 USD per reduced ton of CO2 emissions. In order to guarantee INDC target, Turkey should set new renewable energy targets for the INDC period.