Coupling an Ecological Network with Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation: An Ecological Spatial Constraint Approach

To balance ecological protection and urban development, a land use simulation model that couples an ecological network (EN) and multiple scenarios was developed based on the PLUS model. The simulation of land use in the Qiantang River Basin in 2030 successfully demonstrates the usefulness of the EN-PLUS model. In this model, conventional ecological constraints (nature reserves and water areas) and three different EN levels were taken as restricted conversion areas during the simulation. Then, four ecological constraints were coupled with four simulation scenarios: business as usual (BAU), rapid urban development (RUD), ecological protection (EP), and urban- and ecology-balanced (UEB). Information from the analysis of model simulation results can be used to reduce the potential damage to a range of land cover types. However, this protective effect is not obvious under the RUD scenario due to the impact of significant human disturbance. Furthermore, although EP is the scenario with the least ecological damage at the whole watershed scale, this is not the case for all subbasins. This indicates the existence of a landscape scale effect. Therefore, the best development scenario should be selected by comprehensively weighing the scale effect and the ecological characteristics of each subbasin.