Potential implications of sea-level rise for Poland

Poland's approximate 500-km coastline predominantly comprises sandy, low-lying beaches and populated coastal low lands. They are exposed to a range of threats from recently observed intensified climate changes and anticipated accelerated sea-level rise. Sediment starvation is already indicated by the growing necessity for dune and cliff protection that has been exacerbated by sea-level rise. The current study is both a summary and extension of existing Polish studies, and analyses current and predicted influences of accelerated sea-level rise on the coast. First, the Polish coast was divided into three areas according to coastal and socioeconomic characteristics. Then, considering two scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise [(i) 30 cm/100 y and (ii) 100 cm/100 y], an analysis of the threats of land loss and flood risk was carried out, and economic and social costs and losses assessed. This analysis included two adaptation scenarios: retreat (do nothing) and full protection. These analyses show that the greatest impacts of accelerated sea-level rise would occur in the far-eastern and western regions of the Polish coast with lesser impacts along the central region. Threatened areas include the conurbation of Gdansk, the Zulawy polders, and the low-lying areas around the Szczecin Lagoon and the Odra river mouth. Because both the Szczecin Lagoon region and the Vistula River delta are of key importance for the Polish economy and are densely populated, a carefully planned response is required to manage these threats.