Simple geometric characteristics fail to reliably predict abdominal aortic aneurysm wall stresses

Purpose: The treatment of patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is typically based on the potential for rupture. Current rupture assessments are in turn based on statistics from aggregate populations and are incapable of providing precise risk estimates for individual AAAs. Significant benefit could be realized if rupture potential for individual AAAs could be reliably determined on the basis of simple geometric characteristics or the results of symmetric thin-shell analysis. This study seeks to determine whether it is possible to estimate wall stresses by use of these simple measures. Methods: Linear finite element analysis was used to estimate the distribution of von Mises stresses in a series of homogeneous, isotropic, three-dimensional AAA models subject to static loading and assumed to have zero residual stresses. The magnitude of the peak stress was tabulated for each model along with the following characteristics: aneurysm volume; maximum diameter; maximum radius; maximal wall distention; aspect ratio (ratio of greatest anteroposterior diameter to transverse diameter); local radii of curvature (in both longitudinal and circumferential directions); and maximum symmetric thin-shell stress estimates (on the basis of the meridional contour). The relationship between peak stress and each of the characteristics was assessed by use of Spearman rank correlation coefficients, with values less than 0.95 interpreted as signifying unreliable associations. Results: Peak stresses in the individual models ranged from 1.79 x 10(6) dyne/cm(2) to 15.1 x 10(6) dyne/cm(2). The circumferential and longitudinal radii of curvature were frequently able to predict the locations of high stress, but were unreliable in predicting the magnitude of peak stress. The aspect ratio showed the strongest correlation with peak wall stress (r = 0.88, 95% CI, 0.68-0.96), whereas the other characteristics showed even less correlation. Symmetric thin shell analysis accurately predicted stresses in axially symmetric models, but it was incapable of predicting either the location or magnitude of peak stress in asymmetric models. Conclusions: Simple geometric criteria and symmetric thin shell analyses are unreliable in predicting AAA stresses. Future attempts to estimate wall stress and assess risk of rupture for individual AAAs may require detailed three-dimensional modeling.