Intrinsic and extrinsic flaws of the nomogram predicting bone-only metastasis in women with early breast cancer: An external validation study

被引：4

作者：

Ouldamer, Lobna ^{[1
,2
]}

Bendifallah, Sofiane ^{[3
,4
]}

Chas, Marie ^{[1
]}

Boivin, Laura ^{[1
]}

Bedouet, Lea ^{[1
]}

Body, Gilles ^{[1
,2
]}

Ballester, Marcos ^{[3
,5
]}

Darai, Emile ^{[3
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Hosp Univ Tours, Dept Gynaecol, Tours, France

[2] Univ Tours, INSERM, U1069, Tours, France

[3] Hop Tenon, Dept Obstet & Gynaecol, Paris, France

[4] Univ Paris 06, UMR S 707, Informat Syst, Epidemiol,Modeling, Paris, France

[5] Univ Paris 06, INSERM, UMR S 938, Paris, France

来源：

EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CANCER | 2016年 / 69卷

关键词：

Bone metastases; Breast cancer; Molecular subtype; Nomogram; INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS GUIDELINES; REGRESSION-MODELS; PROGNOSTIC VALUE; ZOLEDRONIC ACID; PROSTATE-CANCER; UNITED-STATES; CARCINOMA; STAGE; SURVIVAL; THERAPY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ejca.2016.09.039

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 ;

摘要：

Background: The recently developed MDACC nomogram purports to predict the risk of bone-only metastasis in women with early breast carcinoma based on five clinical and pathological characteristics. We set out to externally validate and assess its robustness using a tertiary breast cancer centre database. Methods: All consecutive women treated for early breast cancer in our centre between January 1989 and December 2013 and who had all the nomogram variables documented were eligible for analysis. Results: We identified 1255 eligible women for external validation analysis. The median follow-up was 54 months (range: 1-312) and time to initial metastasis 20 months (range: 1-80). The correspondence between the actual bone-only metastasis and the nomogram predictions implied poor calibration of the nomogram in the validation cohort, be it in the whole cohort or when stratified by breast cancer subtype. Conclusion: This external validation study of the MDACC nomogram showed limitations in its generalizability to a new and independent European patient population. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：102 / 109

页数：8

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