Climate change scenarios for northern Europe from multi-model IPCC AR4 climate simulations

被引：46
作者：
Benestad, RE [1 ]
机构：
[1] Inst Meteorol, N-0313 Oslo, Norway
来源：
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2005年 / 32卷 / 17期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1029/2005GL023401
中图分类号：
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号：
07 ;
摘要：
An empirical-statistical downscaling analysis for monthly mean temperature and precipitation is presented for a multi-model ensemble of the most recent climate scenarios (Special Report Emission Scenario A1b) produced for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The analysis involves a model evaluation by incorporating common EOF analysis, where the degree of similarity between the spatial structure of large-scale anomalies in re-analysis products and the climate models is examined. The empirical-statistical downscaling incorporates local information for a given set of locations, however, additional geographical information is utilised in the spatial interpolation of the results. A best-estimate of trend is derived through a Bayesian approach. Thus, maps of multi-model mean scenarios for annual mean temperature and precipitation rates for the 21st century are obtained. Positive trends are found in both temperature and precipitation over northern Europe.
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页码：1 / 3
页数：3
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