Do Orthopaedic In-Training Examination Scores Predict the Likelihood of Passing the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery Part I Examination? An Update With 2014 to 2018 Data

Introduction: Previous research shows a correlation in performance between the Orthopaedic In-Training Examination (OITE) and the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery (ABOS) Certifying Examination Part I; however, these studies are not current, with the most recent data from 2009. The purpose of this study was to update the relationship between the OITE and ABOS Part I scores with the five most recent nationwide cohorts of Part I scores and their corresponding OITE scores. Methods: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons provided the results for each resident taking the OITE from 2013 to 2017. The ABOS provided the results for each resident taking the Part I examination from 2014 to 2018. These two datasets were matched at the individual level and analyzed. Results: Between 2014 and 2018, 3,502 first-time test-takers were present for the ABOS Part I Examination. A 96.6% pass rate was noted (3,383 of 3,502). A statistically significant correlation between the OITE score and ABOS Part I score was observed at all levels of training: postgraduate year (PGY) 1 r = 0.380, PGY2 r = 0.463, PGY3 r = 0.498, PGY4 r = 0.504, and PGY5 r = 0.504 (P < 0.001 for all correlations). Conclusion: The OITE scores continue to correlate with the ABOS scores and the pass rate for the ABOS with moderate strength correlation. However, although a correlation of the examinations exists when evaluated as a group, the predictive value of the OITE for passing the Part I examination for any specific individual is far from perfect. Individuals with PGY5 OITE percentile scores less than 10 pass the Part I examination, and individuals with PGY5 OITE percentile scores greater than 90 fail the Part I examination.