Global backtracking of anthropogenic radionuclides by means of a receptor oriented ensemble dispersion modelling system in support of Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification

被引:46
作者
Becker, Andreas
Wotawa, Gerhard
De Geer, Lars-Erik
Seibert, Petra
Draxler, Roland R.
Sloan, Craig
D'Amours, Real
Hort, Matthew
Glaab, Hubert
Heinrich, Philippe
Grillon, Yves
Shershakov, Vyacheslav
Katayama, Keiichi
Zhang, Yuetang
Stewart, Paul
Hirtl, Marcus
Jean, Michel
Chen, Peter
机构
[1] Vienna Int Data Ctr, Preparatory Commiss Comprehens Nucl Test Ban Trea, A-1400 Vienna, Austria
[2] Univ Nat Resources & Appl Life Sci, Inst Meteorol, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
[3] NOAA, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
[4] US Natl Data Ctr, HQ AF Tech Applicat Ctr, TMAR, Patrick AFB, FL 32925 USA
[5] Canadian Meteorol Ctr, Environm Emergency Response Div, Dorval, PQ H9P 1J3, Canada
[6] Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England
[7] Deutsch Wetterdienst, D-63067 Offenbach, Germany
[8] CEA, F-91680 Bruyeres Le Chatel, France
[9] Fed Emergency Response Ctr, FEERC Roshydromet, SPA Typhoon, Obninsk 249038, Kaluga, Russia
[10] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008122, Japan
[11] Natl Meteorol Ctr, China Meteorol Adm, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
[12] Natl Meteorol & Oceanog Ctr, Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia
[13] ZAMG, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
[14] World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland
关键词
long-range Lagrangian dispersion models; multi-model backward ensemble dispersion modelfing; inversion model evaluation; global nuclear monitoring;
D O I
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.12.048
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
In this paper, we introduce a methodology for quality assessment of backtracking models. We present results illustrating the level of agreement between the backtracking models, and the accuracy of each model and the ensemble model in resolving the geo-temporal reference of a single point source. Both assessments are based on an ensemble of 12 different Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling (LPDM) systems utilized in receptor oriented (adjoint) mode during an international numerical experiment dedicated to source region estimation. As major result, we can confirm that the findings of Galmarini et al. [2004b. Ensemble prediction forecasting-Part 11: application and evaluation. Atmospheric Environment 38, 4619-4632] and Delle Monache and Stull [2003. An ensemble airquality forecast over Europe during an ozone episode. Atmospheric Environment 37, 3469-3474], regarding the superiority of the ensemble dispersion forecast over a single forecast, do also apply to LPDM when utilized for backtracking purposes, in particular if only vague a priori knowledge of the source time is available. This, however, is a likely situation in the context of the global nuclear monitoring performed by the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), where quick but reliable source location identification is required. We introduce a simple methodology as a template for a future electronic emergency response system in the field of dispersion modelling. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:4520 / 4534
页数:15
相关论文
共 45 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 1994, DESCRIPTION 5 GENERA
[2]   Continuous four-dimensional source attribution for the Berlin area during two days in July 1994. Part I: the new Euler-Lagrange-model system LaMM5 [J].
Becker, A ;
Keuler, K .
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2001, 35 (32) :5497-5508
[3]  
BECKER A, 2004, REV NEW PTS MODELLIN
[4]  
*CTBTO, 2004, CTBT PTS TR
[5]   Uncertainty, ensembles and air quality dispersion modeling: applications and challenges [J].
Dabberdt, WF ;
Miller, E .
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2000, 34 (27) :4667-4673
[6]  
DAMOURS R, 2004, 0 ORDER LANGRANGIAN
[7]   An ensemble air-quality forecast over western Europe during an ozone episode [J].
Delle Monache, L ;
Stull, RB .
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2003, 37 (25) :3469-3474
[8]   The use of global and mesoscale meteorological model data to predict the transport and dispersion of tracer plumes over Washington, D. C. [J].
Draxler, RR .
WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 2006, 21 (03) :383-394
[9]  
Draxler RR, 2003, J APPL METEOROL, V42, P308, DOI 10.1175/1520-0450(2003)042<0308:EOAEDC>2.0.CO
[10]  
2