Hydraulic uncertainty inclusion in water distribution systems contamination source identification

This study presents a methodology for the inclusion of hydraulics uncertainty in contamination source identification. Current research normally considers the system hydraulics as deterministic and the water quality sensors as ideal. In reality however only a small portion of the hydraulic data is known and most likely only Boolean sensor information of a contamination existence. There is a need to incorporate these considerations in contamination source identification models and to explore their influence on the modelling ability to correctly detect the characteristics of a contamination intrusion. This problem is addressed in this manuscript. The proposed method is based on a previous contamination source detection model developed by the authors which is further embedded in a statistical framework for quantifying the uncertainty of a contamination source detection outcome. The methodology is demonstrated on three example applications of increasing complexity through base runs and sensitivity analyses.