Prediction of Bullying and Victimization: Results of a 10-Year Follow-Up Study Based on Data From Mothers, Fathers, and Adolescents

Bullying at school is a serious public health problem that affects both the short-and long-term well-being and health of children and adolescents. Bullying is defined as aggressive behavior or intentional harm-doing by peers that is carried out repeatedly. Bullying can take the form of direct bullying, which includes physical and verbal acts of aggression such as hitting, stealing, or name calling, or indirect bullying, which is characterized by social exclusion and rumor spreading. Children can be involved in bullying as victims (BV) and bullies (BB), and also as bully/victims (BBV). Approximately 10-15% of young people are victimized by peers. The aims of this longitudinal study were (a) to estimate the prevalence rates of BV, BB, and BBV in a medium-sized German city of 250,000 inhabitants, (b) to analyze the short-term effects of bullying on adolescents' mental health and quality of life at the age of 13-16 years, and (c) to identify predictors of adolescent bullying by analyzing family variables assessed when the children were 3-6 years old. The analysis is based on data of the longitudinal project Zukunft Familie III. A total of 477 families were recruited for the first time when the children were in kindergarten and were between 3 and 6 years old. Mothers and fathers were assessed at the start and 1, 2, and 10 years later (also the adolescents). In total, 361 (retention rate 76%) families took part in the 10-year follow-up when the adolescents were 14 years old on average. Data were collected using a combination of interview and questionnaires, for example, Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL), Youth Self Report (YSR), Parenting Scale (PS), Depression-Anxiety-Stress Scale (DASS), Life Quality (KINDL-R), and the Bully-Victim Questionnaire (BVQ)). The prevalence rates were 6% for BB, 6% for BBV, and 11% for BV, in total 23%. Significant gender differences emerged for BB (males: 9%, females: 3%) and BBV (9% vs. 2%), but not for BV. The rates for cyberbullying were 5% for BB and 4% for BV. After 10 years, highly significant differences emerged with regard to CBCL and YSR Internalizing (INT) and Externalizing (EXT) symptomatology, life quality, and school grades between BV and adolescents not affected by bullying (NB), resulting in worse outcomes for BV. Comparisons between the three bullying groups were nonsignificant. At the pre-assessment, mothers' and fathers' CBCL scores for INT and EXT were significantly higher for BV in comparison with NB; BV mothers showed more dysfunctional parenting and higher DASS scores than NB mothers. Binary logistic regressions showed that above all, a dysfunctional parenting behavior significantly predicts bullying experiences. Preventive bullying programs should change dysfunctional parenting behavior. BV should receive early psychotherapeutic help, also to prevent possible long-term consequences.