The role of El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the dynamics of a savanna large herbivore population

被引：6

作者：

Marshal, Jason P. ^{[1
]}

Owen-Smith, Norman ^{[1
]}

Whyte, Ian J. ^{[2
]}

Stenseth, Nils Chr ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Witwatersrand, Ctr African Ecol, Sch Anim Plant & Environm Sci, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa

[2] S African Natl Pk, ZA-1350 Skukuza, South Africa

[3] Univ Oslo, Dept Biol, CEES, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway

来源：

OIKOS | 2011年 / 120卷 / 08期

关键词：

LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE; DENSITY-DEPENDENCE; RED DEER; INDIAN-OCEAN; SOAY SHEEP; RAINFALL; SURVIVAL; VARIABILITY; PREDATION; WEATHER;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.19155.x

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Our understanding of large-scale climatic phenomena and dynamics of large herbivore populations comes principally from research in northern regions with temperate, seasonal climate and animal communities with relatively low species diversity. To assess the generality of that perspective, we investigated effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on population dynamics of African buffalo Syncerus caff er inhabiting a semi-arid savanna with variable rainfall. We used linear and nonlinear-threshold models to investigate relationships between population parameters and explanatory variables affecting forage conditions (seasonal rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index [SOI]). El Nino-related droughts in 1982-1983 and 1991-1992 were associated with strongly negative population change, a pattern expected to coincide with a decrease in normally high and constant adult survival. Consistent with that nonlinear pattern, we detected threshold relationships between wet-season rainfall and population change. Juvenile recruitment was described best by linear relationships with dry-season. Because ENSO operates primarily through wet-season rainfall, whereas population dynamics were also related to dry-season rainfall, SOI did not have the predictive ability of individual weather components.

引用

页码：1175 / 1182

页数：8

共 53 条

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