SD based scenario analysis of water security in South China: a case study

Water security is a key issue concerning social, economic and life security of mankind at both global and local levels. The North River basin in Guangdong Province of China is one such area with water security crisis. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model for scenario analysis of regional water security strategies was set up; and the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory and the interrelation among socio-economic and environmental system were considered during modeling. As a case study, representative for water security issues in developed areas in South China, this model was used to assist decision makers generating water resources management plans of the North River basin in Guangdong province. The results suggest that the SD based scenario analysis can be effectively used as the guide for modifying water security strategies for sustainable development in Guangdong province.