Climate Change, Drought, and Jamaican Agriculture: Local Knowledge and the Climate Record

The purpose of this study is to reach a basic understanding of drought and climate change in southwestern Jamaica through an integration of local knowledge and perception of drought and its physical characteristics manifested in remotely sensed precipitation and vegetation data. Local knowledge and perception are investigated through a survey of sixty farmers in St. Elizabeth Parish and physical characteristics of drought are examined through statistical analysis of satellite precipitation and vegetation vigor time series. The survey indicates that most farmers are concerned about an increase in drought occurrence. Satellite estimates of rainfall and vegetation vigor for St. Elizabeth Parish support this perception and suggest that severe drought events are becoming more frequent. The satellite precipitation time series also suggest that the early growing season is becoming drier as compared to the primary growing season, especially since 1991. This recent divergence in growing season moisture conditions might add to farmers' observations that drought is becoming more prevalent. Consequently, Jamaican farmers perceptions of drought are not driven by magnitude and frequency of dry months alone but rather by the difference between growing seasons. Any development of drought adaption and mitigation plans for this area must not focus solely on drought; it must also compare moisture conditions between months and seasons to be effective.